How much investing matters

Published on May 25, 2024, 12:46 p.m.

This is the blunt truth about investing: it is important to do it. And this is how much it matters.

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Let's take a simple case into consideration and see if investing matters.

Our clients is 43. His expenses are only 500 euro/month. He doesn't earn anything and can't count on a pension later. He has about 100 000 euro saved. Can he make it? can he maintain his lifestyle FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE?

1. Our client's objective is to withdraw 500 euro, plus inflation, each month from now, for about 31 years (31 years is his life expectancy at 43). We search through some ETFs plus cash, and find that by investing masively, about 99% of his savings, in iShares World Multifactor ETF and keeping 1% in cash, he will have a probability of 65% to succeed.

2. Let's pretend now that our client restricts the investable assets only to cash: basically, that means he can't invest. No need to use our app to compute that 100 000 euro / 500 euro monthly = 200 months, or 16.6 years. And that is even before accounting for inflation. So that would be a 0% chances to succeed in maintaining the lifestyle for 31 years.

3. Let's asume our client makes a strategy mistake, and invests everything he has in a low risk, bond fund: with 99.9% invested in OTP Obligatiuni fund, he only gets to 7% probability of success.

4. Let our client now invest in a more suitable, hence more risky, equity fund, something like OTP Avantis mutual fund. Our algo takes advantage of the 0% trading commission and recommends investing 100% in this fund and not keeping any for current expenses. But the probability only gets as high as 15%.

5. Now that we have a good investment - OTP Avantis - that gives 15% probability, how much money would our client need to take him to 65% probability? Remember that 65% probability was obtained in 1. by investing in the best ETF selected by our algorithm. After some trials and errors, we find that sum to be somewhere arround 100 000 euro!

To recap: at 1. we found the best portfolio. At 2. we found that not investing is disatrous. At 3. we found some unsuitable investment to still be better than not investing. At 4. we found that the second best investment and at 5. we put a price arround not selecting the best, and that's 100k.

 

So that is the benefit that this client gets by investing based on our advice: about 100k euro compared to some other, good investment. And he only paid 10 euro for that advice. Bravo to him.